Korona Kielce 1-3 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Korona Kielce at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 March 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Korona Kielce have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Korona Kielce have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski.
Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.50 for Radomiak Radom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Korona Kielce, 1 for Radomiak Radom and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 0–4 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 52% versus Radomiak Radom 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 36% | Radomiak Radom 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.57 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.927 / defence 0.901 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.008 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.177. Data: 59 Korona Kielce games / 59 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 49% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 26%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Radomiak Radom 3.85. Korona Kielce hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Korona Kielce as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Korona Kielce 40% | Radomiak Radom 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 49% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Korona Kielce 1.57 / Radomiak Radom 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.927 / def 0.901 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.008 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Radomiak Radom xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Korona Kielce 1 - 3 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 49% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom?
Record (5 meetings): Korona Kielce 3W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Korona Kielce's attack rating (0.93) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.01x) against Korona Kielce's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
49%
2.04
25%
3.97
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.64
1.07
Radomiak Radom xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
5%
18.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.07 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Korona Kielce come into this having played 59 games, going 16W 23D 20L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.17 PPG from 59 outings (19W 12D 28L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.17 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Korona Kielce's home form reads 11W 10D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.14 points per game from 29 outings (10W 3D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.27 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 16W 23D 20L in their last 59 games (1.20 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 19W 12D 28L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.48 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Korona Kielce have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 4-0 on 19 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Korona Kielce
1
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Radomiak Radom 0-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 48%, Radomiak Radom 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Korona Kielce) and 59% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Korona Kielce have failed to score in 28% of games; Radomiak Radom in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 41% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 59% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Korona Kielce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Korona Kielce 1-3 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.57 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.07 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.01 / defence 1.17, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 49% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 26%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 36%, Radomiak Radom 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.20 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.