🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Cracovia Krakow defy the odds to beat Korona Kielce 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cracovia Krakow beat Korona Kielce 0-1 at Exbud Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.59 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.26 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Korona Kielce fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 43% | Draw 28% | Cracovia Krakow 29%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Cracovia Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 37%, Cracovia Krakow 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Korona Kielce's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.39 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights