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Shock result as Jagiellonia defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Widzew Łódź 3-2 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.33 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.51 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 0.86 / defence 1.26 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 33% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 42%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Jagiellonia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 51%, Widzew Łódź 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights