Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Chorten Arena to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 February 2027, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's home record at Chorten Arena: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jagiellonia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Raków Częstochowa in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Jagiellonia, 4 for Raków Częstochowa and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 5–2 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 64% and Raków Częstochowa 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 64% | Raków Częstochowa 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.59 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.919 / defence 1.098 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.964 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.306. Data: 42 Jagiellonia games / 43 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 39% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 30%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Raków Częstochowa 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 60% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 39% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 63% | xG Jagiellonia 1.59 / Raków Częstochowa 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.919 / def 1.098 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.964 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Raków Częstochowa xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Chorten Arena.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 39% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (10 meetings): Jagiellonia 4W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 4W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
39%
2.57
31%
3.22
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.97
1.38
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
6%
16.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.38 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 19W 11D 12L from 42 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 16W 7D 19L across 42 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.62 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 11W 3D 6L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 7W 3D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.48 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Raków Częstochowa in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 19W 11D 12L in their last 42 games (1.62 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 16W 7D 19L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.80 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jagiellonia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
4
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 4, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-5 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jagiellonia at 70%, Raków Częstochowa at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Jagiellonia and 65% for Raków Częstochowa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Jagiellonia's games and 75% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Jagiellonia's matches and 65% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.