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Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia beat Cracovia Krakow 5-2 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.40 xG and Cracovia Krakow 2.09 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.01 / defence 1.31 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.27 / defence 0.90, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 25% | Draw 21% | Cracovia Krakow 53%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Jagiellonia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 53%, Cracovia Krakow 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.78 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights