Jagiellonia 2-4 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 13:45 UTC.
Form
Jagiellonia (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Jagiellonia's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cracovia Krakow's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Jagiellonia, 3 for Cracovia Krakow and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 68% versus Cracovia Krakow 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 76% | Cracovia Krakow 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.43 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.342 / defence 0.816 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.041 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.083. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 1.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Jagiellonia games / 38 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 47% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 23%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Cracovia Krakow 4.35. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Cracovia Krakow lead the H2H ledger, but Jagiellonia carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 50% | Cracovia Krakow 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 47% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Jagiellonia 1.43 / Cracovia Krakow 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.342 / def 0.816 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.041 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Cracovia Krakow xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Jagiellonia 2 - 4 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 47% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (6 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 2 | Cracovia Krakow 3W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (1.04x) against Jagiellonia's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.31
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.35
0.92
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
5%
18.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.92 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 21W 9D 7L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 10W 15D 12L from 37 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Jagiellonia are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cracovia Krakow.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 2.33 PPG from 18 outings (13W 3D 2L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 5W 7D 6L from 18 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 21W 9D 7L in their last 37 games (1.95 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 10W 15D 12L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.33 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-2 on 10 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
4
Draws
4
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 50%, Cracovia Krakow 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Jagiellonia) and 17% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 39%; Cracovia Krakow in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 33% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 72% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 17% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Jagiellonia 2-4 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.43 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.92 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 0.92 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.34 / defence 0.82 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.04 / defence 0.82, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 47% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 23%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Cracovia Krakow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 76%, Cracovia Krakow 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Cracovia Krakow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.