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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.72 xG and Wisla Plock 0.94 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.22 / defence 0.94 against Wisla Plock attack 0.83 / defence 0.87, drawn from 49/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 54% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 19%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 50%, Wisla Plock 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Wisla Plock's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.86 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights