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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 14 as Gornik Zabrze welcome Wieczysta Kraków to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Gornik Zabrze — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Gornik Zabrze haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Gornik Zabrze's home record at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 2.06 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.171 / defence 0.987 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Gornik Zabrze games / 0 Wieczysta Kraków games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 62% | Draw 22% | Wieczysta Kraków 16%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Wieczysta Kraków 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Gornik Zabrze (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Gornik Zabrze at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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