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Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Widzew Łódź 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Widzew Łódź 3-2 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.37 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.89 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Widzew Łódź outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.86 / defence 0.83 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 48% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 24%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 45%, Widzew Łódź 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Widzew Łódź's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.48 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights