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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gornik Zabrze cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Slask Wroclaw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Slask Wroclaw 2-0 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.65 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.17 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.90 / defence 0.85 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.08 / defence 1.20, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 48% | Draw 25% | Slask Wroclaw 27%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 48%, Slask Wroclaw 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.48 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights