🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Piast Gliwice 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Piast Gliwice 2-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.58 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.28 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.16 / defence 0.97 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.10 / defence 0.85, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 43% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 30%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 49%, Piast Gliwice 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.51 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights