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Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Jagiellonia 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Jagiellonia 2-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.23 xG and Jagiellonia 1.09 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Jagiellonia attack 1.01 / defence 0.73, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 39% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 32%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 47%, Jagiellonia 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.56 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights