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Dominant Gornik Zabrze run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cracovia Krakow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Cracovia Krakow 3-0 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.20 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.83 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cracovia Krakow landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.79 / defence 0.79, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 43% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 24%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 47%, Cracovia Krakow 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.43 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights