Gornik Zabrze 0-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla plays host to Gornik Zabrze versus Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Cracovia Krakow's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Gornik Zabrze's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Cracovia Krakow's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Gornik Zabrze 2W, Cracovia Krakow 4W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 2–3 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Gornik Zabrze goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 52% versus Cracovia Krakow 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 46% | Cracovia Krakow 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.48 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.077 / defence 1.032 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.102 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.146. Data: 56 Gornik Zabrze games / 56 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 41% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 33%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Cracovia Krakow 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Cracovia Krakow lead the H2H ledger, but Gornik Zabrze carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 50% | Cracovia Krakow 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 41% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.48 / Cracovia Krakow 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.077 / def 1.032 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.102 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Cracovia Krakow xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Gornik Zabrze 0 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 41% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (6 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 2W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 4W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 1.08x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (1.10x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
41%
2.45
26%
3.80
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.78
1.30
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
7%
13.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.30 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 25W 12D 19L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 17W 23D 16L from 56 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.32 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.93 PPG from 27 outings (15W 7D 5L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 9W 10D 8L from 27 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.52 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 25W 12D 19L in their last 56 games (1.55 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 17W 23D 16L in their last 56 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.93 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Gornik Zabrze go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cracovia Krakow won 5-0 on 3 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gornik Zabrze
1
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 48%, Cracovia Krakow 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Gornik Zabrze) and 37% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 52% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 37% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cracovia Krakow defy the odds to beat Gornik Zabrze 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Gornik Zabrze 0-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.48 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.30 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gornik Zabrze fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.10 / defence 0.95, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 41% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 33%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Cracovia Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 46%, Cracovia Krakow 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.55 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.