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Dominant Gornik Zabrze run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Arka Gdynia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Arka Gdynia 5-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 2.33 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.51 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.07 / defence 0.90 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.48 / defence 1.33, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 78% | Draw 17% | Arka Gdynia 6%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 54%, Arka Gdynia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights