🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

GKS Katowice and Zaglebie Lubin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Regular Season - 2, as GKS Katowice and Zaglebie Lubin drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.31 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.99 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 0.92 / defence 0.93 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.80 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 44% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 28%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 57%, Zaglebie Lubin 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GKS Katowice's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.40 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights