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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as GKS Katowice edge out Wisla Plock 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GKS Katowice beat Wisla Plock 1-0 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.55 xG and Wisla Plock 0.86 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 1.09 / defence 0.86 against Wisla Plock attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 52% | Draw 28% | Wisla Plock 20%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 50%, Wisla Plock 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GKS Katowice's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.

Wisla Plock's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.38 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights