GKS Katowice 3-2 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GKS Katowice at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Widzew Łódź make the trip to Stadion GKS Katowice to face GKS Katowice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 19:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GKS Katowice have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GKS Katowice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GKS Katowice have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stadion GKS Katowice — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — GKS Katowice are significantly better at Stadion GKS Katowice than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in GKS Katowice's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GKS Katowice lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with GKS Katowice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
GKS Katowice half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GKS Katowice 52% versus Widzew Łódź 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GKS Katowice 56% | Widzew Łódź 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GKS Katowice 1.72 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GKS Katowice attack 1.218 / defence 0.964 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.965 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.273. Data: 46 GKS Katowice games / 46 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GKS Katowice 47% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 24%. Fair-value odds: GKS Katowice 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Widzew Łódź 4.17. GKS Katowice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GKS Katowice as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GKS Katowice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GKS Katowice 60% | Widzew Łódź 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion GKS Katowice • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GKS Katowice 47% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG GKS Katowice 1.72 / Widzew Łódź 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: GKS Katowice attack 1.218 / def 0.964 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.965 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: GKS Katowice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
GKS Katowice xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Widzew Łódź xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Stadion GKS Katowice.
What was the final score in GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź?
GKS Katowice 3 - 2 Widzew Łódź.
Where is GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion GKS Katowice.
What competition is GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź part of?
GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives GKS Katowice a 47% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making GKS Katowice the favourite.
Will both teams score in GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź?
Record (4 meetings): GKS Katowice 1W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 2W.
What form are GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź in?
GKS Katowice (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GKS Katowice's attack rating (1.22) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.96x) against GKS Katowice's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GKS Katowice Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.47
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
GKS Katowice xG
Total xG
2.91
1.18
Widzew Łódź xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
4%
23.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for GKS Katowice and 1.18 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GKS Katowice come into this having played 46 games, going 20W 8D 18L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for GKS Katowice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.15 PPG from 46 outings (13W 14D 19L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for GKS Katowice against 1.15 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
GKS Katowice's home form reads 14W 3D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — GKS Katowice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 0.77 points per game from 22 outings (4W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GKS Katowice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GKS Katowice are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.22 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GKS Katowice
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
GKS Katowice have gone 20W 8D 18L in their last 46 games (1.48 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 14D 19L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GKS Katowice at home or Widzew Łódź away?
GKS Katowice's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GKS Katowice at home: 2.05 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.77 PPG.
Have GKS Katowice or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
GKS Katowice have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: GKS Katowice have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Widzew Łódź won 3-0 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GKS Katowice have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
GKS Katowice
1
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź?
From 5 meetings on record, GKS Katowice have won 2, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when GKS Katowice 3-2 Widzew Łódź.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GKS Katowice 54%, Widzew Łódź 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (GKS Katowice) and 46% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GKS Katowice home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GKS Katowice play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of GKS Katowice's recent matches and 50% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GKS Katowice vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of GKS Katowice's recent games and 46% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GKS Katowice and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
GKS Katowice have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GKS Katowice edge out Widzew Łódź 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GKS Katowice beat Widzew Łódź 3-2 at Stadion GKS Katowice, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.72 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.18 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. GKS Katowice beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Widzew Łódź outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 1.22 / defence 0.96 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.96 / defence 0.91, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 47% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 24%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 56%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GKS Katowice's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.48 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.