🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as GKS Katowice edge out Radomiak Radom 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GKS Katowice beat Radomiak Radom 3-2 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 2.04 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.19 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. GKS Katowice beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.92 / defence 1.12, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 57% | Draw 21% | Radomiak Radom 22%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 62%, Radomiak Radom 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GKS Katowice's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.32 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights