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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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GKS Katowice cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Puszcza Niepołomice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GKS Katowice beat Puszcza Niepołomice 3-1 at Arena Katowice, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.28 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.81 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. GKS Katowice beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 0.83 / defence 0.84 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 48% | Draw 29% | Puszcza Niepołomice 23%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 52%, Puszcza Niepołomice 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GKS Katowice's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.33 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights