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Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over GKS Katowice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Piast Gliwice beat GKS Katowice 1-3 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.33 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.08 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Piast Gliwice outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.85 / defence 0.92, drawn from 48/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 40% | Draw 31% | Piast Gliwice 28%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Piast Gliwice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 61%, Piast Gliwice 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GKS Katowice's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.37 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights