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GKS Katowice and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Regular Season - 21, as GKS Katowice and Legia Warszawa drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.56 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.09 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 48% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 26%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 57%, Legia Warszawa 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GKS Katowice's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.42 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights