🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as GKS Katowice edge out Korona Kielce 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GKS Katowice beat Korona Kielce 1-0 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.30 xG and Korona Kielce 1.25 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Korona Kielce landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 0.89 / defence 1.18 against Korona Kielce attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 37% | Draw 28% | Korona Kielce 35%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 61%, Korona Kielce 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GKS Katowice's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.30 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights