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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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GKS Katowice and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GKS Katowice and Jagiellonia finished level at 2-2 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.39 xG and Jagiellonia 1.20 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 1.32 / defence 0.91 against Jagiellonia attack 1.16 / defence 0.76, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 40% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 31%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 54%, Jagiellonia 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GKS Katowice's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Jagiellonia's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.47 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights