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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as GKS Katowice edge out Gornik Zabrze 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GKS Katowice beat Gornik Zabrze 2-1 at Arena Katowice, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.09 xG and Gornik Zabrze 0.95 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. GKS Katowice beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 0.75 / defence 0.80 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 39% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 31%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 48%, Gornik Zabrze 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GKS Katowice's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.32 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights