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Dominant Cracovia Krakow run riot with a 0-3 hammering of GKS Katowice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cracovia Krakow beat GKS Katowice 0-3 at Stadion miejski w Katowicach, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GKS Katowice 1.97 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.53 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. GKS Katowice fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 1.53 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GKS Katowice attack 1.17 / defence 1.14 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.15 / defence 1.06, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GKS Katowice 48% | Draw 22% | Cracovia Krakow 30%, with GKS Katowice to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Cracovia Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GKS Katowice 61%, Cracovia Krakow 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GKS Katowice's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GKS Katowice 1.37 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights