Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Widzew Łódź make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Cracovia Krakow, 0.60 for Widzew Łódź — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Widzew Łódź in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Cracovia Krakow 1W, Widzew Łódź 3W, 4D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 55% versus Widzew Łódź 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 51% | Widzew Łódź 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.50 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.956 / defence 1.022 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.017 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.316. Data: 47 Cracovia Krakow games / 47 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 38% | Draw 30% | Widzew Łódź 32%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Widzew Łódź 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Widzew Łódź 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 38% | Draw 30% | Widzew Łódź 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.50 / Widzew Łódź 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.956 / def 1.022 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.017 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Widzew Łódź xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 38% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
Record (8 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 4 | Widzew Łódź 3W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 0.96x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.02x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
38%
2.63
30%
3.34
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.87
1.37
Widzew Łódź xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
7%
13.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.37 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 12W 18D 17L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 13W 14D 20L from 47 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.13 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (7W 10D 6L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 5D 14L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.23 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 12W 18D 17L in their last 47 games (1.15 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 14D 20L in their last 47 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.35 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
4
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Widzew Łódź 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 65%, Widzew Łódź 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cracovia Krakow) and 48% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 52% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 48% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.