Cracovia Krakow 1-0 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Widzew Łódź make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 15 August 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Cracovia Krakow's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Widzew Łódź in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Widzew Łódź hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Widzew Łódź have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 76% and Widzew Łódź 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 60% | Widzew Łódź 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.83 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.021 / defence 1.007 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.978 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.276. Data: 38 Cracovia Krakow games / 38 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 51% | Draw 23% | Widzew Łódź 26%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Widzew Łódź 3.85. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Widzew Łódź lead the H2H ledger, but Cracovia Krakow carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Widzew Łódź 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 15 Aug 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 51% | Draw 23% | Widzew Łódź 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.83 / Widzew Łódź 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.021 / def 1.007 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.978 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Widzew Łódź xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 15 August 2025 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 0 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 51% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
Record (6 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 0W | Draws 3 | Widzew Łódź 3W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 1.02x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.98x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
51%
1.97
23%
4.34
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.09
1.26
Widzew Łódź xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
4%
24.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.26 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 16W 10D 12L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 13W 8D 17L from 38 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.24 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 3W 5D 10L from 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Widzew Łódź's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.18 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 16W 10D 12L in their last 38 games (1.53 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.33 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
4
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Widzew Łódź 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Cracovia Krakow, 67% for Widzew Łódź — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Cracovia Krakow) and 56% (Widzew Łódź). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 67% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 56% of Widzew Łódź's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cracovia Krakow edge out Widzew Łódź 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Widzew Łódź 1-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.83 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.26 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cracovia Krakow fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Widzew Łódź landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 51% | Draw 23% | Widzew Łódź 26%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 60%, Widzew Łódź 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.53 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.