Cracovia Krakow 1-3 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Widzew Łódź make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Monday 5 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Cracovia Krakow, 1.50 for Widzew Łódź — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Cracovia Krakow 0W, Widzew Łódź 2W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 47% versus Widzew Łódź 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 36% | Widzew Łódź 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.52 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.137 / defence 0.981 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.106 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.080. Data: 36 Cracovia Krakow games / 36 Widzew Łódź games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 45% | Draw 26% | Widzew Łódź 29%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Widzew Łódź 3.45. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 40% | Widzew Łódź 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 5 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 45% | Draw 26% | Widzew Łódź 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.52 / Widzew Łódź 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.137 / def 0.981 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.106 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Widzew Łódź xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 5 August 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 3 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 45% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
Record (4 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 0W | Draws 2 | Widzew Łódź 2W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 1.14x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (1.11x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.90
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.69
1.17
Widzew Łódź xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
6%
15.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.17 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 9W 16D 11L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 14W 8D 14L from 36 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.39 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (5W 8D 5L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 7D 7L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 9W 16D 11L in their last 36 games (1.19 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 14W 8D 14L in their last 36 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.28 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
4
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Widzew Łódź 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Cracovia Krakow, 83% for Widzew Łódź — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cracovia Krakow) and 56% (Widzew Łódź).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 83% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 56% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Cracovia Krakow 1-3 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.52 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.17 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Widzew Łódź outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.14 / defence 0.98 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.11 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 45% | Draw 26% | Widzew Łódź 29%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Widzew Łódź win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 36%, Widzew Łódź 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.19 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.