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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Slask Wroclaw cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Cracovia Krakow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slask Wroclaw beat Cracovia Krakow 2-4 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.83 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.39 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw outscored their 1.39 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.04 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 48% | Draw 23% | Slask Wroclaw 29%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Slask Wroclaw win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 46%, Slask Wroclaw 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.33 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights