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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.

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Match Analysis

Cracovia Krakow host Raków Częstochowa at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cracovia Krakow haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Raków Częstochowa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Raków Częstochowa — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Cracovia Krakow have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 10 past contests while Raków Częstochowa have managed just 2 wins.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 1–4 with Raków Częstochowa winning.

The historical record gives Cracovia Krakow a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 50% versus Raków Częstochowa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 47% | Raków Częstochowa 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.31 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.871 / defence 0.973 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.150 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.160. Data: 34 Cracovia Krakow games / 34 Raków Częstochowa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 36% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 36%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Raków Częstochowa 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Cracovia Krakow dominate the H2H record, yet Raków Częstochowa are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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