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Stalemate at Cracovia Krakow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.41 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.62 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.19 / defence 1.25 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 33% | Draw 25% | Raków Częstochowa 42%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 46%, Raków Częstochowa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.35 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights