Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Cracovia Krakow and Radomiak Radom meet at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Cracovia Krakow's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego than their overall form suggests.

Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Cracovia Krakow 5W, Radomiak Radom 4W, 1D.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Radomiak Radom winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 56% and Radomiak Radom 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 52% | Radomiak Radom 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.86 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.939 / defence 1.039 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.980 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.281. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Cracovia Krakow games / 48 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 49% | Draw 27% | Radomiak Radom 25%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Radomiak Radom 4.00. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 70% | Radomiak Radom 40% BTTS from recent games.

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