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Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Radomiak Radom beat Cracovia Krakow 1-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 2.04 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.23 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.11 / defence 1.14 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.94 / defence 1.33, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 56% | Draw 21% | Radomiak Radom 23%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Radomiak Radom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 44%, Radomiak Radom 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.35 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights