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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Puszcza Niepołomice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cracovia Krakow beat Puszcza Niepołomice 3-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.41 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.16 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.04 / defence 1.17 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.83 / defence 0.96, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 43% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 31%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 46%, Puszcza Niepołomice 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.31 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights