Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pogon Szczecin are 0.50 PPG clear of Cracovia Krakow in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 0 for Pogon Szczecin and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 40% versus Pogon Szczecin 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 40% | Pogon Szczecin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.29 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.072 / defence 0.783 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.001 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.199. Cracovia Krakow's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Cracovia Krakow games / 43 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 44% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 27%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Pogon Szczecin 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pogon Szczecin (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 10% | Pogon Szczecin 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 44% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.29 / Pogon Szczecin 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.072 / def 0.783 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.001 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Pogon Szczecin xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 44% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (1 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 0W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 0W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.00x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
44%
2.25
28%
3.53
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.23
0.94
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.94 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 16W 11D 16L from 43 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 7L across 43 games — 1.91 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cracovia Krakow heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 10W 5D 6L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 9W 8D 4L across 21 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.81 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 16W 11D 16L in their last 43 games (1.37 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 23W 13D 7L in their last 43 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.67 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 3 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 1-5 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
6
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 33%, Pogon Szczecin 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cracovia Krakow) and 33% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 52% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 33% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 10, as Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.29 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.94 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.07 / defence 0.78 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.00 / defence 0.86, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 44% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 27%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 40%, Pogon Szczecin 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.