🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nieciecza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cracovia Krakow beat Nieciecza 2-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.45 xG and Nieciecza 1.77 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nieciecza landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.04 / defence 1.11 against Nieciecza attack 1.23 / defence 0.92, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 32% | Draw 23% | Nieciecza 45%, with Nieciecza to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Cracovia Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 100%, Nieciecza 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 3.00 PPG, Nieciecza 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow managed 2 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Nieciecza managed 0 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights