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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Legia Warszawa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cracovia Krakow beat Legia Warszawa 3-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.43 xG and Legia Warszawa 2.21 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Legia Warszawa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.92 / defence 1.31 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.34 / defence 1.01, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 24% | Draw 20% | Legia Warszawa 55%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Cracovia Krakow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 47%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Legia Warszawa's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Cracovia Krakow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights