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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cracovia Krakow and Lech Poznan finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.13 xG and Lech Poznan 0.98 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lech Poznan outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.83 / defence 0.86 against Lech Poznan attack 0.95 / defence 0.82, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 37% | Draw 34% | Lech Poznan 29%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 58%, Lech Poznan 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Lech Poznan's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.52 PPG, Lech Poznan 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights