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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 21, as Cracovia Krakow and Korona Kielce drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.46 xG and Korona Kielce 1.14 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.08 / defence 1.12 against Korona Kielce attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 44% | Draw 27% | Korona Kielce 29%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 44%, Korona Kielce 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.33 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights