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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cracovia Krakow and Gornik Zabrze share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cracovia Krakow and Gornik Zabrze finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.07 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.10 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Gornik Zabrze attack 1.01 / defence 0.68, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 34% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 36%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 60%, Gornik Zabrze 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.62 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights