Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Górnik Łęczna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Górnik Łęczna travel to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Cracovia Krakow. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 December 2021, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 2L across 8 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Górnik Łęczna — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Górnik Łęczna's away record: 1W 2D 5L from 8 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cracovia Krakow register both teams scoring in 62% of relevant matches, Górnik Łęczna in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cracovia Krakow have won 0, Górnik Łęczna 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Górnik Łęczna trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 65% and Górnik Łęczna 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 53% | Górnik Łęczna 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.60 xG and Górnik Łęczna 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.969 / defence 1.078 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.785 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.187. Górnik Łęczna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Cracovia Krakow games / 17 Górnik Łęczna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 51% | Draw 25% | Górnik Łęczna 24%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Górnik Łęczna 4.17. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 62% | Górnik Łęczna 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 51% | Draw 25% | Górnik Łęczna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.60 / Górnik Łęczna 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.969 / def 1.078 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.785 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Górnik Łęczna xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna?
Cracovia Krakow 0 - 2 Górnik Łęczna.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 51% chance of winning, Górnik Łęczna a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Górnik Łęczna will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Górnik Łęczna?
Record (1 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 0W | Draws 1 | Górnik Łęczna 0W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Górnik Łęczna in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 0.97x the league average against Górnik Łęczna's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Górnik Łęczna's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
51%
1.95
25%
4.01
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.61
1.00
Górnik Łęczna xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
5%
21.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Górnik Łęczna expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.00 for Górnik Łęczna, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 5D 6L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Górnik Łęczna sit at 0.71 PPG from 17 outings (2W 6D 9L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Górnik Łęczna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Górnik Łęczna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 4W 2D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Górnik Łęczna have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Górnik Łęczna are on 0.88 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Górnik Łęczna in 71%.
Last 17 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Górnik Łęczna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Górnik Łęczna in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while Górnik Łęczna have gone 2W 6D 9L in their last 17 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Górnik Łęczna away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.75 PPG; Górnik Łęczna away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
1
Górnik Łęczna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Górnik Łęczna?
From 2 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 0, Górnik Łęczna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Górnik Łęczna last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2021, when Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Górnik Łęczna.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Górnik Łęczna?
Górnik Łęczna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cracovia Krakow at 62%, Górnik Łęczna at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Cracovia Krakow and 62% for Górnik Łęczna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Górnik Łęczna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Górnik Łęczna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 75% of Górnik Łęczna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 62% of Górnik Łęczna's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Górnik Łęczna tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Górnik Łęczna in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Górnik Łęczna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Górnik Łęczna beat Cracovia Krakow 0-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.60 xG and Górnik Łęczna 1.00 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Górnik Łęczna outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against Górnik Łęczna attack 0.79 / defence 1.35, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 51% | Draw 25% | Górnik Łęczna 24%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Górnik Łęczna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 53%, Górnik Łęczna 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Górnik Łęczna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Górnik Łęczna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.