🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Cracovia Krakow and Arka Gdynia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cracovia Krakow and Arka Gdynia finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.80 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.88 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Arka Gdynia outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.78 / defence 1.39, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 58% | Draw 25% | Arka Gdynia 17%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 48%, Arka Gdynia 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.33 PPG, Arka Gdynia 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.46 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights