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Prediction vindicated as Arka Gdynia edge out Wisla Plock 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arka Gdynia beat Wisla Plock 1-0 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.38 xG and Wisla Plock 1.25 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against Wisla Plock attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 39% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 33%, with Arka Gdynia to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 33%, Wisla Plock 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Wisla Plock's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Arka Gdynia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arka Gdynia conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights