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Dominant Raków Częstochowa run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Arka Gdynia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Raków Częstochowa beat Arka Gdynia 1-4 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.42 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.29 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.29 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.16 / defence 0.84, drawn from 16/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 39% | Draw 29% | Raków Częstochowa 32%, with Arka Gdynia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Raków Częstochowa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 50%, Raków Częstochowa 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights