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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arka Gdynia and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arka Gdynia and Radomiak Radom finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.36 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.50 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 34% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 41%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 0%, Radomiak Radom 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arka Gdynia scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Radomiak Radom managed 1 against a 5.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights