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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Arka Gdynia edge out Piast Gliwice 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arka Gdynia beat Piast Gliwice 2-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.11 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.83 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Arka Gdynia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 0.78 / defence 0.87 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.80 / defence 0.85, drawn from 12/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 41% | Draw 33% | Piast Gliwice 26%, with Arka Gdynia to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 42%, Piast Gliwice 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arka Gdynia 1.00 PPG, Piast Gliwice 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arka Gdynia win broke the near-deadlock. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights