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Stalemate at Arka Gdynia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 31, as Arka Gdynia and Gornik Zabrze drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.27 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.25 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Arka Gdynia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Gornik Zabrze landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 0.96 / defence 1.23 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 35% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 34%, with Arka Gdynia to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 61%, Gornik Zabrze 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights