🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Arka Gdynia defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arka Gdynia beat Cracovia Krakow 2-1 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.01 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.29 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Arka Gdynia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 0.72 / defence 0.86 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.23 / defence 0.89, drawn from 10/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 28% | Draw 29% | Cracovia Krakow 42%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Arka Gdynia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 30%, Cracovia Krakow 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arka Gdynia's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Arka Gdynia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights