Over 3.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest predicted over 3.5 probability — Thursday 28 September 2023
Over 3.5 goals requires at least 4 goals — a higher-risk, higher-reward market. Our prediction model sums all scorelines with 4 or more total goals to calculate this probability. Fixtures here are the most attacking matchups of the day, ideal for both teams to score accumulators and big-game scoring markets.
18 fixtures cleared the bar on Thursday 28 September 2023. AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles sits top on 57% in the Eredivisie. The shortlist runs from 57% down to 26%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
The shortlist spans eight different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.
Of the 18 fixtures on this list that have since finished, nine landed the over 3.5 goals market — 50%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Eredivisie · Netherlands
La Liga · Spain
Serie A · Italy
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
Pro League · United-Arab-Emirates
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Pro League · United-Arab-Emirates
Superettan · Sweden
Süper Lig · Turkey
Superettan · Sweden
Serie A · Italy
Super League · Switzerland
Super League · Switzerland
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Super League 1 · Greece
Superettan · Sweden
La Liga · Spain
Showing top 18 fixtures by over 3.5 goals probability (≥ 25%). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Over 3.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Over 3.5 Goals market mean?
Over 3.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with at least 4 total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate over 3.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The over 3.5 probability shown here is the probability of at least 4 total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Over 3.5 Goals on Thursday 28 September 2023?
18 fixtures met the criteria, led by AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles at 57% over 3.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with the highest over 3.5 probabilities of the day, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these over 3.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.